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A Look at CAL

  • It's been hard for me to forget last year's game at CAL. Since this summer, I've been worried about this next game, against a team that played us tighter than any other in the conference last year. Then, I saw what Washington and Colorado did to that defense. 582 and 466 yards respectively. Easy Oregon win then, yah? I'm afraid not. After looking at some stats, highlights and
    matchups, I have some concerns.

    Through 4 games, Oregon has shown it's
    strengths and weaknesses. Those could
    change, but I doubt it, and until I see
    otherwise that's what I'm going on. The
    Ducks are a very good running team. They
    are not good at defending the pass, which
    is a two-fold issue: 1) they can't generate
    pressure without blitzing and 2) their
    cornerbacks have been getting beat. It's
    amazing how a little pressure can improve
    the play of your secondary, but I don't us
    improving much in that area anytime soon.
    A good passing game will continue to hurt
    us, so we'll have to rely on outscoring
    people. I'm not as confident as I'd like to be
    that we'll outscore Cal.

    Cal might be giving up a lot of yards, but
    most of those are through the air. Against
    PAC12 opponents, Cal is giving up 3.4
    yards per carry. If you remember back to
    last year, their DLine was able to contain
    our running game like few others could. Our
    MO is that we struggle against good
    defensive fronts (see: LSU, Auburn, CAL).
    CAL has a good defensive front. They aren't
    LSU, but they make Arizona look like a high
    school team. LMJ isn't putting up 280. I
    don't think that CAL can completely shut
    down the Oregon run game, but if we want
    to put up big yards, it'll likely have to be
    through the air.

    Against PAC12 competition, CAL is
    averaging over 300 yards passing per
    game. Look for this to continue. Until the
    Ducks show me otherwise, I can't see them
    stopping a passing team. CAL will score
    their share of points, the key will be holding
    them to FGs once they're in the redzone.

    Our offensive strength is running. Cal's
    defensive strength is stopping the run. Their
    offensive strength is passing, which happens to be our defensive weakness. You can see why I'm worried.

    Our passing game is untested this year against good competition. It will have to be sharp to beat Cal. They'll put up points and keep our ground game in check. I predict a victory and a good game by Darron Thomas. Huff/Vaughn/Tuinei are all going to have to show up big. This game could turn out to be a lot more difficult than many suspect.

    This post was edited by illmatic88 on 9/27/2011 at 2:56 PM

    illmatic88 ●

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    "Release Me Cuhhhhhhhh"

    mcmcc1

  • We ain't losing at home. LMJ will continue his roll and DAT and Barner will get out in receiving and help DT have a big day.

    I think we win 43-17.

    MoneyBeGreen ●

  • I'm not nearly as concerned about or pass defense as you. Until we faced one the best QB's in the nation everyone was saying that out secondary was rock solid and our rushing defense was the weak spot.

    Having a little extra time to get Kiko and Cliff reacclimated and hopefully getting Clay back should do wonders for our defense.

    Cal will certainly do a better job of slowing down our rushing offense than Arizona did but I don't see this game being too close.

    This post was edited by LetMeSeeYourO on 9/27/2011 at 6:37 PM

    signature image signature image

    Give em Helfrich!!!

    LetMeSeeYourO

  • LetMeSeeYourO said...

    I'm not nearly as concerned about or pass defense as you. Until we faced one the best QB's in the nation everyone was saying that out secondary was rock solid and our rushing defense was the weak spot.

    Having a little extra time to get Kiko and Cliff reacclimated and hopefully getting Clay back should do wonders for our defense.

    Cal will certainly do a better job of slowing down our rushing offense than Arizona did but I don't see this game being too close.

    Maynard is definitely not a Foles-level QB either. Allen and Jones are good receivers but I think Cliffy, T-Mitch and Gildon can lock them down. Would also like to see Ifo in there as well - he didn't play much against Zona and I thought maybe he could've helped out there.

    If we get Clay back as well our defense should be fine. Either way I agree in that I don't think this game will be close. Cal will forget about DAT or Barner like they forgot about Dickson in '09 and DT will torch them.

    MoneyBeGreen ●

  • MoneyB, don't take this personally, but there is absolutely no way we give up only 13 points. I will not only eat my words if that happens, I will literally eat my own face off.

    I hope you're right, but I'll be happy if we keep them under 30. I'm gonna say 34 - 23. Our D steps up with some big red zone stops and ends up winning us the game (despite all my concerns lol).

    illmatic88 ●

  • Any word on Clay btw?

    illmatic88 ●

  • illmatic88 said...

    MoneyB, don't take this personally, but there is absolutely no way we give up only 13 points. I will not only eat my words if that happens, I will literally eat my own face off.

    I hope you're right, but I'll be happy if we keep them under 30. I'm gonna say 34 - 23. Our D steps up with some big red zone stops and ends up winning us the game (despite all my concerns lol).

    Damn ill. You better hope he's not right and they score more than 13. Be rough going through life having to explain to people that you "literally ate your own face off" over some little forum guarantee

    "Release Me Cuhhhhhhhh"

    mcmcc1

  • mcmccoydx said...

    Damn ill. You better hope he's not right and they score more than 13. Be rough going through life having to explain to people that you "literally ate your own face off" over some little forum guarantee

    Haha I know bro. That's how confident I am. I tell you what though, all my forum brothers are instilling more confidence in me. Makin' me feel better about Cal. Still no way we give up less than 2td's.

    illmatic88 ●

  • I think playing at Autzen will be huge. I think Cal also having this weekend off doesn't help us. Maynard can't throw like Foles, but he runs more than Foles does. We'll have to see more out of our WR's since Cal's DLine is good. But Ducks roll....

    signature image signature image signature image

    HovasDucks

  • Cal has played
    Fresno St
    Colorado
    Presbetyrian
    Washington

    Maynard is completing 52% of his passes. He only completed 54% against prebestyrian. Not even close to Foles at 71% (against a way tougher schedule too). This is not even going to be close to the challenge we just faced at Arizona.

    Cal is giving up 24 points a game against that schedule. Every division one team they have played has scored 30+ points on them. Average passer rating against Cal this year is 133.12 Against division one opponents cal is giving up 300 passing yds a game. I'd say that if we can't get the running game on track, DT will have an opportunity to get the air game going. Last year we weren't able to back them off the LOS with the deep ball, hitting one or two early will be key to getting our ground game going. Lastly, with all of the attention they got for faking injuries I don't think they will be able to rely on that to slow us down.

    Duckit ●

  • Maynard has rushed 19 times for 44 years. So he does run with it but does not appear to do so with much success.

    Duckit ●

  • Duckit said...

    Cal has played
    Fresno St
    Colorado
    Presbetyrian
    Washington

    Maynard is completing 52% of his passes. He only completed 54% against prebestyrian. Not even close to Foles at 71% (against a way tougher schedule too). This is not even going to be close to the challenge we just faced at Arizona.

    Cal is giving up 24 points a game against that schedule. Every division one team they have played has scored 30+ points on them. Average passer rating against Cal this year is 133.12 Against division one opponents cal is giving up 300 passing yds a game. I'd say that if we can't get the running game on track, DT will have an opportunity to get the air game going. Last year we weren't able to back them off the LOS with the deep ball, hitting one or two early will be key to getting our ground game going. Lastly, with all of the attention they got for faking injuries I don't think they will be able to rely on that to slow us down.

    Those r good numbers Duckit. We're gonna see whether or not we can move it through the air this year, so I'm excited to see that. This game will be the perfect barometer. Really hopeful that our WRs step it up. My boy Vaughn is gonna blow!

    illmatic88 ●

  • Could be a tough game but Cal doesn't have the loaded defensive front that they have had in recent years. There are no 1st round picks on their DL. They have loads of young talent but I think the Ducks will run on them enough to open up the passing game and Thomas will torch them through the air.

    Is anyone with me when I think that the Ducks will never lose under Chip at home? I know it will happen but it just feels like we are about to go on a streak where we win another 20-25 straight at home and get up around 40-50 straight home wins. Honestly, if there are no significant sanctions, it is not a stretch to think that the Ducks wind up on this list by the year 2015.

    The league is down right now while the Ducks keep adding talent.

    Miami (Florida): 58 games (1985-1994)
    Alabama: 57 games (1963-1982)
    Harvard: 56 games (1890-1995)
    Michigan: 50 games (1901-1907)
    Nebraska: 47 games (1991-1998)
    Washington: 44 games (1908-1917)
    Texas: 42 games (1968-1976)
    Notre Dame: 40 games (1907-1918)
    Notre Dame: 38 games (1919-1927)
    Florida State: 37 games (1992-2001)
    Yale: 37 games (1904-1908)
    Yale: 37 games (1900-1903)
    USC: 36 games (2001-2003)
    Marshall: 33 games (1995-2000)
    Nebraska: 33 games (1901-1906)

    BoliverBOLx0

  • illmatic88 said...

    Those r good numbers Duckit. We're gonna see whether or not we can move it through the air this year, so I'm excited to see that. This game will be the perfect barometer. Really hopeful that our WRs step it up. My boy Vaughn is gonna blow!

    I agree. I believe that we will be okay in that regard but I want to see it happen!

    Duckit ●

  • It's funny how a week ago everyone was up in arms about how poor Oregon's rush D was, then we play one of the best passing attacks in the nation and get an early 32 point lead forcing them to throw it 60 times and they get some yards.

    Here's a stat - yards per attempt for Foles against:

    Oregon - 7.0

    Stanford - 7.2

    Oklahoma St. - 7.8

    Northern Arizona - 9.8

    Now let's all take a deep breath. Oregon's secondary is still very good.

    wig

  • illmatic88 said...

    Any word on Clay btw?

    Check Rob Moseley's blog as he sees the team in person, but otherwise you know the answer to that question as well as the rest of us; he's day to day.

    Caravaggio

  • Boliver said...

    Could be a tough game but Cal doesn't have the loaded defensive front that they have had in recent years. There are no 1st round picks on their DL. They have loads of young talent but I think the Ducks will run on them enough to open up the passing game and Thomas will torch them through the air.

    Is anyone with me when I think that the Ducks will never lose under Chip at home? I know it will happen but it just feels like we are about to go on a streak where we win another 20-25 straight at home and get up around 40-50 straight home wins. Honestly, if there are no significant sanctions, it is not a stretch to think that the Ducks wind up on this list by the year 2015.

    The league is down right now while the Ducks keep adding talent.

    Miami (Florida): 58 games (1985-1994) Alabama: 57 games (1963-1982) Harvard: 56 games (1890-1995) Michigan: 50 games (1901-1907) Nebraska: 47 games (1991-1998) Washington: 44 games (1908-1917) Texas: 42 games (1968-1976) Notre Dame: 40 games (1907-1918) Notre Dame: 38 games (1919-1927) Florida State: 37 games (1992-2001) Yale: 37 games (1904-1908) Yale: 37 games (1900-1903) USC: 36 games (2001-2003) Marshall: 33 games (1995-2000) Nebraska: 33 games (1901-1906)

    easy man...let's not be jinxing anything.

    how many defensive starters did they lose from last season?

    "Release Me Cuhhhhhhhh"

    mcmcc1

  • wig said...

    It's funny how a week ago everyone was up in arms about how poor Oregon's rush D was, then we play one of the best passing attacks in the nation and get an early 32 point lead forcing them to throw it 60 times and they get some yards.

    Here's a stat - yards per attempt for Foles against:

    Oregon - 7.0

    Stanford - 7.2

    Oklahoma St. - 7.8

    Northern Arizona - 9.8

    Now let's all take a deep breath. Oregon's secondary is still very good.

    Not altogether disagreeing with you wig, but think of what their average would have been had their star receivers not just up and dropped well-thrown, long balls they routinely catch 9 times out of 10. We got just plain lucky on five or six such plays. We hardly want a defense predicated on luck.

    I for one remain concerned about our defense, BOTH against the pass AND the run. Perhaps they just need a bit more time to gel, I don't know, but it has seemed if it's not one thing it's the other.

    As for Clay, if he was still in a boot on Saturday, I can't imagine him playing in nine days. I wish someone -- anyone -- would give us something more than "he's day to day."

    This post was edited by JohnnyDuck on 9/27/2011 at 6:52 PM

    JohnnyDuck

  • illmatic88 said...

    MoneyB, don't take this personally, but there is absolutely no way we give up only 13 points. I will not only eat my words if that happens, I will literally eat my own face off.

    I hope you're right, but I'll be happy if we keep them under 30. I'm gonna say 34 - 23. Our D steps up with some big red zone stops and ends up winning us the game (despite all my concerns lol).

    I said 17, not 13.

    MoneyBeGreen ●

  • Boliver said...

    Could be a tough game but Cal doesn't have the loaded defensive front that they have had in recent years. There are no 1st round picks on their DL. They have loads of young talent but I think the Ducks will run on them enough to open up the passing game and Thomas will torch them through the air.

    Is anyone with me when I think that the Ducks will never lose under Chip at home? I know it will happen but it just feels like we are about to go on a streak where we win another 20-25 straight at home and get up around 40-50 straight home wins. Honestly, if there are no significant sanctions, it is not a stretch to think that the Ducks wind up on this list by the year 2015.

    The league is down right now while the Ducks keep adding talent.

    Miami (Florida): 58 games (1985-1994) Alabama: 57 games (1963-1982) Harvard: 56 games (1890-1995) Michigan: 50 games (1901-1907) Nebraska: 47 games (1991-1998) Washington: 44 games (1908-1917) Texas: 42 games (1968-1976) Notre Dame: 40 games (1907-1918) Notre Dame: 38 games (1919-1927) Florida State: 37 games (1992-2001) Yale: 37 games (1904-1908) Yale: 37 games (1900-1903) USC: 36 games (2001-2003) Marshall: 33 games (1995-2000) Nebraska: 33 games (1901-1906)

    Didn't we have a pretty long home win streak in the late 90's - early 2000's?

    Edit: I found it!
    From 1997 to 2001, the Ducks had a 23-game home winning streak at Autzen Stadium. The streak ended with a 49–42 loss to Stanford.

    Damn you Stanford Cardinal!

    This post was edited by LetMeSeeYourO on 9/27/2011 at 6:53 PM

    signature image signature image

    Give em Helfrich!!!

    LetMeSeeYourO

  • CAL still clearly has one of the premier run stopping front 7s in the conference.

    Caravaggio

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    "Release Me Cuhhhhhhhh"

    mcmcc1

  • Here's the problem with saying UA dropped passes they routinely catch, you are totally discounting the fact UO dropped two picks that would have stopped two drives that resulted in 14 points for UA. Yeah UA should hav caught those passes, but so should are DB's. It's a wash at the end of the day.

    Do you think LSU fans whinned after our game, and said UO dropped 6 passes they shoul have caught or we are in trouble in that game?

    signature image

    jsaund ●

  • Caravaggio said...

    CAL still clearly has one of the premier run stopping front 7s in the conference.

    Yes, they have only given up two rushing td's all year. They are giving up 3.4 yds a carry in conference play. I don't think it will be as rough as last year but as somebody else said LMJ won't be seeing 280 this week. We will have to be able to throw the ball well against Cal.

    Duckit ●

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