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I think people are overly optimistic that Oregon will be in the tournament because of that magical "20-win" number they see, understanding it could easily climb to 22 or 23 if we take care of business. Right now, pretty much every expert has us on the outside looking in, which isn't good considering a couple teams will randomly win their conference and wreck the bubble (see: link).
I think that Oregon will have to beat Colorado and Utah, plus win in the quarters of the PAC12 tourney to have a realistic shot of earning a bid. To clinch one, they'll probably have to get to the finals, meaning they'd finish 24-9.
How do you guys think we do if we did get in? Trying to be as objective as possible, I just don't see a lot of success waiting for us unless we get the perfect matchup. Sim and Joseph would need to shoot the lights out and EJ would need to be a playmaker all game long. If we're forced to beat a solid team (5-7 seed) off the dribble and in the paint, we're in trouble. If we can get there though, who knows. Sim could just pull up from 35 feet every time and we'd have a decent shot.
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This post was edited by illmatic88 2 years ago
20 wins used to be the benchmark and that's gone to the wayside. Too many good teams out there now-a-days especially in the mid-major level.
Now if Oregon gets to 22 wins? Now we are talking more likely. 23 wins and they are in IMO. Normally in the Pac-12 when it's got a legit overall resume 21 wins and you are in but this is an odd year(s) where the Pac-12 is down so a team has to win a few extra to make sure they are in.
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I think winning out the regular season is the requirement for us to be a tournament lock. Hard not to be positive when a 6th place Texas team with a 18-11 record including a loss to OSU and a losing conference record is listed as last 4 in.......
My guess all along was 23 wins. However, the tourney could go a long way or sell us short. Style point would be good.
Agreed. Need to sweep at Matt and get a win in the Pac-12 Tournament. 23 wins and an RPI in the mid-40s should do it. Anything less is NIT resume material.
Not that hard - we just win the Tourney and get the automatic bid. I honestly think we can do it - what team do you guys think we can't beat?
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Why don't we just win the Pac12 tourney and make it a moot point?
In all seriousness, I don't think this is unrealistic at all. I don't see one team in this conference that I absolutely woudn't want to face. If we can get that first round bye, I think we have as good a shot as anyone.
You could put me in with the optimistic group (possibly overly optimisitic). I just don't see how we wouldn't make it if we win 23 games.
As far as how deep we could go goes..... Your guess is as good as mine. We certainly have the talent to make some noise. If Sim and Joseph are hot we can beat anyone. The thing I like about this team is the depth and balance. There are three or four guys that could go for 25 on a given night. If Olu and Woods are able to contribute down low we could be a tough matchup for almost anyone.
Assuming we are shooting a decent percentage from the floor, the key to success will be in limiting turnovers and rebounding. If we do that we could make a good run.
I would not want the season to come down to beating Cal - we are 2-22 against Montgomery and he always seems to have our number. We are capable of beating any team in the Pac-12; we are also capable of losing to any of them in normal circumstances except maybe Utah and USC. Any game on a neutral site against the best teams is essentially a 50-50 proposition. Hopefully we don't need the auto invite to get in.
A quarterfinal win will not be enough. We have to win a semi-final game. This will give us the needed extra win over either Cal or Washington. Wins against any other teams are just not going to be impressive enough to matter.
Honestly it is still win and advance and lose and you are out time right now. The Ducks need to just keep winning as long as they have games and then to take a quote from our Chip Kelly "Look up when it's all over to see where you are at."
If the Ducks can get to 23 wins they are in IMO but let's just make sure of things and win the damn thing! We can do it too. I don't want to face Cal just because it's hard but anyone else doesn't scare me.
As always, the Ducks have to sweep that last 2, and win one in the Pac 12 tourney. If they win two in the tourney that means they're playing in the championship. Essentially if they win the next 4 they're in for sure, win the next 3 and they still have a decent shot, but winning the next 4 means they're in for sure. How about winning the next 5? Then they're in absolutely for sure!
So, hypotheticals, which is better for the team/program:
1st round tourney loss
No one cares about the NIT. Winning that is like kissing your sister.
1st round tourney loss
Look how far we have come - the Tourney Champ last year was great; an NIT finals this year will be more than anyone expected. If we get to the NCAA and are seeded 10 or higher for our Region, I think we can win our first game at least. I would hate to go in as a 16 seed and have to play a 1 seed. If we go to the NIT, wouldn't we host a game or two?
No way to go as a 16-seed. Only auto qualifiers from the lesser leagues are seeded that low. Non-AQs from the power leagues typically seeded no lower than 12. At 12, you play a 5, typically the fourth or fifth place team from one of the power leagues (ACC, Big East, Big 12) or a high-seed from the non-power leagues.....i.e. still a very good team.....we would still have our hands full but would be fun to see.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by DuxFlav23 2 years ago
2-22 against Montgomery, that's truly an insane stat. Talk about ownership
So? There are two games at Matt, then up to 4 games in the tourney. I think sweeping and avoiding a first round game is paramount.
20 wins = NIT
21 wins = NIT
22 wins = would have to go deep in PAC12 tourney, probably to the final
23 wins = on the bubble, likely down to last 4
24 wins = So you're saying there's a chance?
25 wins = Vitale moment! Yeah, baby, yeah!
IMO we either need to sweep and win 2 in the tourney or go 1 and 1 and win 3 in the tourney. Looks like Cal, Washington and Arizona are in... 4th spot, if any comes down to the Buffs and the Ducks.
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