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Ducks in the Tourney

  • Man, I'm kind of getting over the 12th seed bit. Kinda. In a quest to try and figure out how in the world the Ducks ended up a 12th seed I did some comparing of RPI's to committee ranking. And here's what I discovered:
    Apparently the conference tournaments mean absolutely nothing--except for the teams that win who wouldn't have otherwise gotten in. The spokesman said Oregon would have gotten in even if they hadn't won the conference tourney. I'm sure Oregon would have been a 12th seed if they had lost to UW. The first school that's at least 10 spots better than their RPI is none other than OK St. Wisky is 12 spots higher, Pitt is 13 spots higher. Oregon is actually 4 spots higher. Who got potentially the big time shaft? Belmont is 25 spots lower than their RPI.

    What lesson can we potentially take from this? Schedule tougher out of conference games. That's about it.

    Oh well, mostly over it. The fact is the Ducks are in and unless you're a 1-4 seed, you've got to play a 1-4 seed in order to advance to the sweet 16. Or, perhaps beat the team the beat the high seed. In other words everybody's good at this point and so we'll get a chance to see just how good Altman is. OSU's best player is potentially the #1 overall pick in the draft, Marcus Smart. I imagine UO plans on running Dotson, Loyd, and perhaps even Emory to attempt to stymie his movement. I like the Ducks chances in this tournament. They seem to have brushed off the terrible CU and Utah back-to-back performances and raised their level of play in Vegas bigtime. I think the Ducks could go deep, perhaps even into the final 4. Or, they could lose Thursday. Either way, it's great to have a dog in the hunt again in March Madness!

    Go Ducks!

    Tacduck

  • I think Oregon can reach the final four as well but only if we don't have to face Louisville.

    The way I see that happening is Duke (they can also lose against whoever they play in the S16) choking versus the winner of Cincinnati/Creighton in the round of 32 and Louisville losing to Missouri (I think Missouri will beat Colorado St) in that same round. Then Oregon will have to play Missouri and whoever beats Duke between Cincinnati/Creighton which I think will be Cincinnati. This would put us in a rematch of earlier in the season playing Cincinnati in the S16. I'm assuming Cincinnati/Creighton would beat Michigan St in the S16 cause I have MSU making it up to there.

    Of course, one game at a time. Hope these boys come out swinging versus Oklahoma St and continue on that momentum they built in the PAC-12 tourney.

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    dagoj08

  • The 12 seed was starting to really piss me off today when I was filling out my bracket. My brain is really saying Ok state, but my heart can't let me.

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    Green Yellow31439

  • dagoj08 said...

    I think Oregon can reach the final four as well but only if we don't have to face Louisville.

    The way I see that happening is Duke (they can also lose against whoever they play in the S16) choking versus the winner of Cincinnati/Creighton in the round of 32 and Louisville losing to Missouri (I think Missouri will beat Colorado St) in that same round. Then Oregon will have to play Missouri and whoever beats Duke between Cincinnati/Creighton which I think will be Cincinnati. This would put us in a rematch of earlier in the season playing Cincinnati in the S16. I'm assuming Cincinnati/Creighton would beat Michigan St in the S16 cause I have MSU making it up to there.

    Of course, one game at a time. Hope these boys come out swinging versus Oklahoma St and continue on that momentum they built in the PAC-12 tourney.

    I hope so! I bought a $10 100/1 on the Ducks winning it all in Vegas a month ago.

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    Green Yellow31439

  • In my bracket I have UO going to the elite 8 and losing. FWIW I have L'Ville getting upset in the 2nd round, I really don't think they are that great. But of course I'm not sold on Indiana either, who every time I looked it seemed they where losing or playing a close game with a team most years #1 team would beat by 20.

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    jsaund

  • At this point I will be thrilled if we can win our first game. Its going to be tough. Final 4 is very wishful thinking. This team isnt as good IMO as the Luke/Luke/Freddie team nor the AB/Hairston etc team.

    Had either of those teams had Kazemi on them, they could have been final 4 teams but I just don't see it with this team.

    I hope i'm wrong but we just seem to have so many lulls where we cant score.

    "Sometimes my teammates tell me I grab their rebounds," the Iranian-born forward said. "I apologize to them." -Arsalan Kazemi

    Droughns

  • jsaund said...

    In my bracket I have UO going to the elite 8 and losing. FWIW I have L'Ville getting upset in the 2nd round, I really don't think they are that great. But of course I'm not sold on Indiana either, who every time I looked it seemed they where losing or playing a close game with a team most years #1 team would beat by 20.

    I have them losing in the E8 too versus Michigan St but the scenario I described above I think CAN happen but them losing in the E8 round I think WILL happen.

    The reason being the same as yours. Louisville doesn't impress me and I have them losing in my bracket losing in the second round to Missouri. I also have Duke losing in the second round to Cincinnati.

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    dagoj08

  • It is unfortunate the committee messed up here. But y'all need to listen to Dana s interview last night with SVP and Rusillo via the oregon mbb Twitter page. that attitude toward it. Everyone a good team in the tourney and well have to face it at some point or another. Reassuring to hear from dana

    This post was edited by dooleyduck10 on 3/19/2013 at 10:14 PM

    dooleyduck10

  • I have the Ducks winning the first game but I think the team is a little too inconsistent to make it past that. On a side note, I have VCU going to the final 4

    "If you die in an elevator, be sure to push the Up button."

    WestTenDuck

  • Tacduck said...

    Man, I'm kind of getting over the 12th seed bit. Kinda. In a quest to try and figure out how in the world the Ducks ended up a 12th seed I did some comparing of RPI's to committee ranking. And here's what I discovered: Apparently the conference tournaments mean absolutely nothing--except for the teams that win who wouldn't have otherwise gotten in. The spokesman said Oregon would have gotten in even if they hadn't won the conference tourney. I'm sure Oregon would have been a 12th seed if they had lost to UW. The first school that's at least 10 spots better than their RPI is none other than OK St. Wisky is 12 spots higher, Pitt is 13 spots higher. Oregon is actually 4 spots higher. Who got potentially the big time shaft? Belmont is 25 spots lower than their RPI.

    What lesson can we potentially take from this? Schedule tougher out of conference games. That's about it.

    Oh well, mostly over it. The fact is the Ducks are in and unless you're a 1-4 seed, you've got to play a 1-4 seed in order to advance to the sweet 16. Or, perhaps beat the team the beat the high seed. In other words everybody's good at this point and so we'll get a chance to see just how good Altman is. OSU's best player is potentially the #1 overall pick in the draft, Marcus Smart. I imagine UO plans on running Dotson, Loyd, and perhaps even Emory to attempt to stymie his movement. I like the Ducks chances in this tournament. They seem to have brushed off the terrible CU and Utah back-to-back performances and raised their level of play in Vegas bigtime. I think the Ducks could go deep, perhaps even into the final 4. Or, they could lose Thursday. Either way, it's great to have a dog in the hunt again in March Madness!

    Go Ducks!

    i agreed with you until you said final 4...................this is a good defensive team with size and an inside presence based on size..........unfortunately they are soft in the middle....even with their size............streaky shooters and not a coherent team offensively...................round of 32 at best.......love my ducks...but there is a reason they didn't win the Pac reg championship

    AngryDuck22

  • AngryDuck22 said...

    i agreed with you until you said final 4...................this is a good defensive team with size and an inside presence based on size..........unfortunately they are soft in the middle....even with their size............streaky shooters and not a coherent team offensively...................round of 32 at best.......love my ducks...but there is a reason they didn't win the Pac reg championship

    Those are sound points, but there is also a reason they DID win the conference tournament.

    If I were a betting man I'd predict they win one, maybe two games.

    There are several things that give me hope that this could be a special tournament. 1) Depth. All 5 starters are integral parts to the team, and have the ability to take over a game. Then you add guys like Johnny Loyd, Carlos Emory, and now Carter and Austin, and that is a deep college basketball team.

    2) Senior leadership. 4 of the primary players are seniors. Their experience, knowledge of the game, and leadership are a valuable commodity, especially in such an important game.

    3) Peaking. This team was rolling mid season, completely lost its identity, and is now finding itself again. When looking back on the season, different guys were the star at different times. If several guys play to their full potential at the same time, look out!

    I expect this to be a close, tough game. But make no mistake about it, this team has the pieces to be a serious contender for an elite 8 spot.

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    Give em Helfrich!!!

    LetMeSeeYourO

  • LetMeSeeYourO said...

    Those are sound points, but there is also a reason they DID win the conference tournament.

    If I were a betting man I'd predict they win one, maybe two games.

    There are several things that give me hope that this could be a special tournament. 1) Depth. All 5 starters are integral parts to the team, and have the ability to take over a game. Then you add guys like Johnny Loyd, Carlos Emory, and now Carter and Austin, and that is a deep college basketball team.

    2) Senior leadership. 4 of the primary players are seniors. Their experience, knowledge of the game, and leadership are a valuable commodity, especially in such an important game.

    3) Peaking. This team was rolling mid season, completely lost its identity, and is now finding itself again. When looking back on the season, different guys were the star at different times. If several guys play to their full potential at the same time, look out!

    I expect this to be a close, tough game. But make no mistake about it, this team has the pieces to be a serious contender for an elite 8 spot.

    +1 on all accounts but winning 2 takes beating the odds twice...even if it is close odds............for a 12 seed they got a good seeding...for Oregon this isn't a great seeding........they have the size on both teams......and Oregon does well when they have that advantage but it comes down to smart....and lloyd.....we have as much a chance of beating OSU as getting to the sweet sixteen on an individual basis.........hard road.....not impossible..but hard..i'm betting they get one.....too much to ask for two

    AngryDuck22

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