Autzen Audibles

The best statistical measure of a baseball player is his OPS ... on base percentage plus slugging percentage. Ichiro has been the worst starting corner outfielder in the major leagues over the last five years when it comes to run production. Nobody makes more outs and contributes less to run production.

I acknowledge that he is a great fielder and a terrific baserunner. That said, he doesn't walk, cannot hit for power and no longer hits over .300. The Mariners had to pay part of his salary for the Yankees to take him and had to accept two 25 year old pitches without much value. This move would have been made five years ago except Ichiro puts bodies in the seats and sells merchandise in Japan. He is one of if not the most overrated player in the history of baseball.

The Mariners started Ryan at SS, Oliva behind the plate and batting clean-up, Smoak at 1st plus Figgins yesterday. All are hitting below .200! The team predictably got five hits and scored one run. This is one of the weakest starting line ups since the dead ball era. Adding Ichiro to this no-hit murderers row was insane.

The Mariners are owned by an absentee Japanese billionaire who doesn't give a shit about baseball. Ichiro's job was to sell stuff in Japan. The Mariner's GM is either an idiot or powerless. A few years ago nearly every single position player ... Lopez, Betancourt, Ichiro, etc., ... got on base the least of any player at their position in the major leagues.

Ichiro led off until this year, a crazy decision if he hits less than .350. His on base % is under .300 this year.

John Smoak ... "Smoak bomb" ... has been on a tear. He has a cumulative batting average over two seasons as a starter of just over .200. He usually bats 5th, an extremely important run producing slot. This year his average has declined to under .200. He produces fewer runs per at bat than any starting first baseman in the big leagues in the last 75 years.

Bill James and the "sabermetrics" people calculate "win shares" ... the amount a given player helps or hurts the team relative to the average player at their position. The science is inexact but is the best predictor of a team's success ever created. Billy Beane used it ... read or view "Moneyball" ... and all the best teams use it. The Mariners haven't cracked the cover on the book and do not seem to know who Bill James is. They are acting as if it is 1914 and Babe Ruth is still in the home for wayward boys.

Ichiro will help the Yankees win a couple close 1-0 or 2-1 pitchers duels. They have a good enough line up to afford his unique skills and lack of power. Still, the fact that the Yankees took him at all is due to Brett Gardiner's injury, ... he is way better than Ichiro ... the Yankees getting cash from Seattle and marketing in Japan.

This is all about replacing Brett Gardner who was a proto-typical lead-off hitter and the speed at the top of the Yankee order. Ichiro will give them a few stolen bases and clutch hits plus an extra outfielder...perhaps paying a dividend or two in October.

Plus, playing for a contender may revive him a bit. Made sense for the Yankees. He had nothing left to play for in Seattle.

He only went 10 straight seasons with 200+ hits, which has never been done before in the history of baseball. So overrated!

Not to mention more hits in a single season than (insert name of anyone to ever play pro baseball here).

He's obviously no longer the player he once was but he had one of if not the best 10 year stretches of a career.

10 straight all star games, gold gloves, and 200 hit seasons.

Ichiro had a large negative "win/share" rating, meaning he cost the Mariners far more games than he won over the past five years. Factoring in the results and the salary Ichiro got paid makes him the single most overpaid and overrated player in the history of major league baseball. Don't take my word for this: it's a widely accepted fact of life. All the top major league teams now use win/share analysis to build their teams.

2000 singles do not offset 4400 outs. Ichiro walked less and hit fewer long balls than any hitter who made as many outs.

If you doubt this, consider what the Mariners got back from NY after shopping Ichiro to any and all takers for the last month and paying part of his salary even after the trade. The market doesn't lie.

I. too, greatly enjoyed watching Ichiro during his first years with the Mariners. I loved how he played right field. That 2001 116 win Mariner team was magical, but Ichiro was not the best hitter on that team. Martinez, Olerud, Cameron and Brett Boone won more games that year than Ichiro. Stan Javier and Mark McLemore were close to Ichiro in per at bat worth as hitters that season even though Ichiro hit .350!

Ichiro is a sure fire Hall of Fame inductee. He made ten All-Star teams. There are no true com parables since he is such a unique player but the closest comparables are Willie McGee and Willie Wilson. Both had slightly more power and walked slightly more than Ichiro. Both played Centerfield, which requires less hitting and more defensive speed. Imagine inducting Wilson or McGee into the Hall of Fame!

Ichiro broke George Sisler's single season hit record. In the year Sisler set the record he hit .420 and was worth well over twice as much as Ichiro, in terms of team wins produced, as Ichiro in his record year.

Your protest proves my point. If you and many others didn't think Ichiro was a great rather than a good player ... in spite of his recent years of extremely low production while being paid $20 million a year ... then he wouldn't be vastly overrated.

Okay Bill James.

Great post(s).