Autzen Audibles

Yes, we faired much better that I thought we would.

Never been a bigger fan of the SoCal schools in my life.

Here's the scenario that gives us our best shot to play in the NCG, I think:

USC beats ND, UCLA beats Stanford, Oregon beats OSU then UCLA. Bama beats Georgia, FSU beats FL. Oregon has better loss than KSU. FSU seems a little bit worrisome should they beat FL, in that case the voters will have to decide whether they want Bama-FSU or Bama-Oregon. It's clear FSU has the worse loss, NC State to our Stanford but not sure how the rest of the SOS would work out.

Kansas state must lose to Texas...or maybe I spoke too soon. Didn't see they dropped to #8...

I guess we all posted a similar take at the same time. I know this is premature ( we haven't seen the other polls), but assuming Oregon stays at #4, I think our biggest challenge, assuming we beat OSU & USC wins, will be Florida based on their "signature wins" and computer strength of schedule. I do not see Florida State passing us, even with a win over Florida.

Our biggest hurdle is ND losing. If ND doesn't lose the natty is gone unless Bama were to lose Saturday to Auburn then Georgia in the SECCG loses too.

There is but it mainly rests on SC beating ND. If they don't, we need Bama to lose to Auburn and Georgia in the SECCG. Meaning we'd play ND in the natty.

Of course, this assuming we're #4 in to tonight's standings.

Response to LMSYO

This is highly encouraging, but at the same time, I have a feeling the computers might place us low, thus slotting us 5th in the BCS. If the computers REALLY wanted to stifle our chances, they'd put K-State 5th and us 6th, which pretty much closes the door on the BCSNGC.

Still, there's room for optimism. Even if we don't make it to the PAC-12 CG, chances are good we end up at least in the top 4 after Bama and Georgia do their thing, which guarantees a BCS bowl berth. That's only if we don't drop below 5th in the standings, though.

Best case scenario IMO is to have FSU beat Florida next week and then FSU lose in the ACC CCG (in addition to the aforementioned ND loss to USC). If FSU were to beat a #5/6 team Florida and then also win their CCG I have a feeling they would jump us without us playing in our CCG. FSU's win against a higher ranked UF than our win (hopefully) against OSU and an extra game against a likely ranked opponent would not bode well for us.

Worst case scenario would be to have USC beat ND and Florida beat FSU. I think if that happens we could easily be looking at another all SEC NCG where you'd have the SEC CCG winner (either Bama or Georgia) against an 11-1 Florida. Please God don't let that happen.

They won't jump us if they beat Texas because a beaver win by the Ducks should be better than a KState win over Texas. The problem isn't the human polls it is the computers. The guys on XM 91 said that since Alambama just dropped to #3 after a loss to #15; we should technically stay in the Top 5 BCS because we lost to #11. But then again they also said it will be very apparent about the SEC bias when the BCS comes out tonight.

I think the most likely scenario is that Florida State beats Florida... Then what? An ND loss to what will be an unranked USC team should know them completely out. BUT, if we can't go, I would rather see a FSU/ND championship and shut the SEC out..

Okay, here is the deal. The best chance we have is for Georgia to lose to Georgia Tech, and then beat Bama in the SEC Championship. The the SEC winner will have two losses and the only SEC team with one loss will be Florida. If Bama loses, then LSU goes to the SEC Champions game. I don't think Florida can beat FSU. So if FSU wins and then USC beats ND; and we take care of business against the Beavers; then we should be down to who are the best one-loss teams? That should be us and FSU. OR if Florida wins, it would create chaos with us playing Florida and neither winning our conference. Best scenario for the Ducks is for UCLA and USC to win; we host the Pac 12 Championship and win. If we can win the Pac 12, I think all we would need is a ND loss and we are in against an SEC team.

We need Stanford to lose to UCLA and USC to beat Notre Dame. Stanford losing helps us for two reasons: 1) we have a chance to win the Pac-12 and possibly play in the Rose Bowl. 2) If ND loses we will likely need one more quality win to stay ahead of the Florida/Florida State winner in the computers. I know the computers don't like Florida St but if they beat a SEC power like Florida they may jump up a bit in both the computers and human polls.

On top of all this, we need Georgia to lose. There are a lot of things that need to happen in order for us to have a chance to make it to MIami. Rooting fpr Stanford to lose and for us to have a chance to play in the Pac-12 Championship game seems like the logical thing to do.